In this series of new blog posts, I want to talk about Strategic Complex Design (SCD) and its relationship to addressing complex problems.

In the previous post, I talked about categorical thinking, which is particularly useful for simplifying reality and making quick decisions, but can be limiting when addressing complex problems. By saving information into predefined categories, this type of thinking hinders the perception of nuances, adaptation to new perspectives, and the generation of creative solutions.

In this post, I intend to talk about flexible thinking, such as systems thinking, which allows us to analyze the interconnections between the different elements of a complex problem. This article is an introduction to systems thinking in its understanding of “Interconnections and Interdependencies” and “Holistic Thinking”. In later posts, I will address more elements of systems thinking and its relationship with Strategic Complex Design (SCD).

Trophic Cascades

A trophic cascade is an ecological process that occurs when a change in the population of a predator at the top of the food chain causes a series of chain effects that reverberate throughout the entire ecosystem. In other words, it is when the influence of predators is not only manifested in the species they hunt, but also indirectly affects multiple levels of the ecosystem, from herbivores to plants and, in some cases, even the geography itself.

The concept of “trophic cascade” was formally developed in the 1960s by ecologist Robert Paine, who conducted key experiments on the Pacific coasts of the United States. This concept has been fundamental to modern ecology, demonstrating that ecosystems are not isolated systems of independent parts, but complex and interdependent networks where small changes can trigger large transformations throughout the entire food chain.

A classic example of this phenomenon is what happened in Yellowstone National Park when wolves were reintroduced in 1995. Wolves had been absent for 70 years, and during that time, the deer population had grown unchecked. Although humans tried to regulate their numbers, deer had consumed much of the park’s vegetation. Without natural predators, deer reduced the landscape to almost nothing, leaving little room for other species to thrive.

Despite being few, the wolves’ effects were astonishing when they returned. Not only did they reduce the deer population by hunting, but they also transformed their behavior. Deer began to avoid areas such as valleys and gorges, places where they could be easily trapped. This allowed vegetation in those areas to begin to regenerate rapidly. In some places, the height of the trees quintupled in just six years. Areas that were once bare valleys became forests of aspen, willow, and cottonwood.

With the return of the trees came the birds. The number of birds increased considerably. So did beavers, which used trees to build dams, creating habitats for various other species, including otters, ducks, fish, and amphibians. In addition, wolves reduced the coyote population, leading to an increase in the number of rabbits and mice, which in turn benefited hawks, weasels, foxes, and badgers.

Although all these effects were surprising, the biggest surprise came when it was found that the reintroduction of a small number of wolves not only affected the fauna but also the physical geography of the park. The rivers began to change, there were fewer meanders and less erosion, the channels narrowed and more pools formed, creating ideal habitats for wildlife. This was because the regenerated forests stabilized the banks, reducing their collapse and fixing the rivers in their courses. What began as the reintroduction of a few wolves ended up causing a systemic change that restored the balance of the park in its entirety. We can imagine an ecosystem as a complex web of interactions, where each species plays a role in the overall balance of the ecosystem.

Holistic Thinking

A change in a key element of a complex system can trigger a series of completely unpredictable cascading effects. The example of the reintroduction of wolves in Yellowstone clearly shows one of the principles of systems thinking, which considers the elements within a system as interrelated parts of a complex whole. With systems thinking, we focus on the search for patterns, relationships, and flows that explain the behavior, or mission, of the whole.

This approach is essential to understanding phenomena such as trophic cascades, but it is also crucial for solving complex problems. Unlike more linear or reductionist approaches (such as categorical thinking), which try to break down problems into isolated parts, systems thinking allows us to understand how the different components of a system interact and influence each other. This is especially important in problems where solutions are not obvious and actions can have unexpected consequences.

The importance of holistic thinking lies in its ability to:

• Identify root causes: By looking at a problem from a holistic perspective, the underlying causes can be identified instead of just treating the symptoms. This allows for more lasting and effective solutions.
• Manage uncertainty and complexity: Complex problems often have multiple variables and perspectives. Holistic thinking facilitates the consideration of different factors and their interactions, helping to make more informed and holistic decisions.
• Prevent unintended consequences: By understanding how changes in one part of the system affect other parts, unintended side effects can be anticipated and mitigated, avoiding solutions that solve one problem but create new ones.
• Foster interdisciplinary collaboration: By focusing on interdependence, systems thinking promotes collaboration between different disciplines and actors, essential to addressing problems that transcend traditional boundaries.
• Promote innovation: By considering the system as a whole, new ways of thinking and approaching problems emerge, allowing for innovative solutions that would not otherwise be evident.

Interconnections and Interdependencies

Systems thinking is a powerful tool for solving Complex problems, helping to understand the “big picture” and develop solutions that take into account the multiple dimensions and interactions within a system.

Systems thinking is the key to exploring, understanding and subsequently designing interventions to address complex problems. Thinking in systems allows us to go beyond the simple cause-and-effect relationship and appreciate the elements, interconnections, and purpose of a system.

Elements

Elements are the individual parts that make up a system. These elements can be tangible, such as machines in a factory, or intangible, such as ideas within an organization. Each element plays a specific role within the system, contributing to its overall functioning. For example, in the Yellowstone Park ecosystem, after the reintroduction of wolves, the main elements would be wolves as predators, elk as their prey, and beavers, whose dams create habitats for other species.

Interconnections

Interconnections are the relationships and links that exist between the elements of a system. They define how these elements interact and how they influence each other. These interconnections can be physical, such as roads in a transportation system, or informational, such as communication in a work team. Continuing with the Yellowstone example, wolves, by hunting elk, regulate their population and influence their behavior, which in turn impacts the park’s vegetation. The decrease in pressure from elk on trees allows the regeneration of willows, aspens, and cottonwoods, favoring beaver activity and the creation of wetlands.

Purpose

The purpose of a system is its raison d’être, the objective it pursues. It is what defines the function of the system as a whole. The purpose can be explicit, such as generating profits in a company, or implicit, such as maintaining balance in an ecosystem. In our example of Yellowstone Park, the purpose of those who promoted the reintroduction of wolves was to maintain a dynamic balance that ensures the health and biodiversity of the park’s ecosystem. The reintroduction of wolves acted as a catalyst that triggered a series of positive cascading changes. Understanding and designing a good purpose in a system demonstrates the importance of each element in the system and its interconnections in its overall functioning.

Holistic Thinking, Interconnections, and Interdependencies in Strategic Complex Design (SCD) Solutions

In the relationship between these two elements of systems thinking, their application to complex problems, and the practice of Strategic Complex Design (SCD), the main elements that I focus on working on are:

• Systemic visualization through “Visual SenseMaking”.
• Design of incremental changes in iterative loops of “Build, Measure and Learn” through “Storytelling”.
• Selling the designed incremental changes through the use of efficient. Creating communication campaigns that focus on “Nonviolent Communication”.

Systemic Visualization

Just as a map helps us visualize a territory, a map of a system allows us to make the different parts, elements, interconnections, and purposes tangible in a more understandable way. Through “Visual Sensemaking” we create these visual representations of complex information.

Visual Sensemaking is based on the idea that our brain processes visual information faster and more intuitively than textual information. By visually emerging a system, it allows us to identify its critical points, the areas where a possible intervention will have the greatest impact and we can also foresee how a change in one part can affect the whole.

We use Visual Sensemaking to:

• Visualize the structure of the system: Represent the elements, interconnections, and boundaries of the system graphically.
• Identify patterns and relationships: Visual representations help us identify patterns, feedback loops, and cause-and-effect relationships that are not evident in textual information.
• Communicate complexity: Facilitates the communication of complex systems to a wider audience, making information more accessible and understandable.
• Facilitate collaboration: Visual representations promote collaboration and dialogue between people involved in the rest of Strategic Complex Design (SCD), as they provide a common language to discuss and analyze information.
• Simulate scenarios: Simulation and modeling tools can be used to explore different scenarios and understand how changes in the system can affect its behavior.

I had the great fortune to attend a workshop given by Elizabeth Pastor, an expert in Visual Sensemaking, at La Nave Nodriza, which helped me tremendously to understand complex situations and to be able to represent them in a new and inclusive way through visualizations.

Incremental Changes

Addressing complex problems through Strategic Complex Design (SCD) does not always have to involve major revolutions or radical changes. Often, we focus on identifying incremental changes within an existing system that generate a significant and anticipated impact. Instead of redesigning an entire system from scratch, we look for small modifications that, like dominoes, trigger a series of positive effects.

Advantages of an incremental approach:

• It is easier to implement: Small changes generate less resistance and are easier for people and organizations to assimilate than radical changes.
• It allows for experimentation: PWe can test incremental changes and observe their effects on the system before making new modifications.
• Reduces risk: By making small and controlled changes, we minimize the risk of generating negative and unforeseen consequences in the system.
• Promotes adaptation: It allows us to gradually adapt to a new system as we learn more about its new behaviors and dynamics.

In Strategic Complex Design (SCD), using cycles such as “Build, Measure, and Learn” allows us to navigate environments of high uncertainty for complex problems. The key is constant experimentation: it is about testing hypotheses, measuring result,s and learning from feedback. This learning allows us to iterate and improve continuously, identifying which incremental changes generate the most value.

In these cycles of “Build, Measure and Learn”, I recommend the use of Dan Harmon’s – Story Circle which although it is mainly used in script writing, offers a narrative structure adaptable to the design of interventions in complex systems. In its eight stages, it allows us to build a story in the form of a script from a comfort zone to a fundamental transformation in an element and its interconnections.

Applying the Story Circle to Strategic Complex Design (SCD):

• “You”: Defines the current state of the system, including the actors involved, their roles, and key interconnections. Identifies weaknesses and areas for improvement.
• “Need” (Need): Defines the objective of the intervention. What change is sought to be generated in the system? What problem is being solved?
• “Go”: Designs the first stage of the intervention, the initial action that will take the system out of its current state. This stage must be concrete and tangible, marking the beginning of change.
• “Struggle”: Anticipates the resistance, obstacles, and challenges that could arise during the intervention. Plan strategies to overcome these obstacles and adapt the intervention to changing circumstances.
• “Find”: Defines the expected results of the intervention. What changes will be observed in the system if the intervention is successful? How will the impact of the intervention be measured?
• “Take”: Considers the possible costs and sacrifices associated with the intervention. What resources will be needed? What risks must be taken?
• “Return”: Plans how the changes generated by the intervention will be integrated into the system in the long term. How will the results obtained be maintained? How will the sustainability of the intervention be ensured?
• “Change”: Defines the final state of the system after the intervention. How will the system have changed? What new interconnections will have been created? How will the system have been fundamentally transformed?

Efficient Communication

In Strategic Complex Design (SCD), it is not only about understanding connections and designing interventions, we must also facilitate their implementation through communication and collaboration between the people who are part of the intervention design. Providing efficient communication of the intervention in the system and anticipating its expected positive and negative dynamics allows for better alignment of people within the challenging environment.

Strategic Complex Design (SCD) prioritizes efficient communication for several reasons:

• Reduces misunderstandings: By understanding how different parts interrelate, misunderstandings and conflicts that can arise from partial visions are avoided.
• Promotes collaboration: A shared vision of the system promotes collaboration by allowing stakeholders to understand how their actions impact others and how they can work together toward a common goal.
• Increases efficiency: Clear and coordinated communication allows for better resource allocation.

The most efficient solution to this communication plan is Nonviolent Communication. This type of communication strengthens collaboration and mutual understanding through four fundamental pillars:

• Observation: Describe objectively. Instead of judging or evaluating an intervention proposal, we must describe it objectively, focusing on observable facts.
• Feelings: Express emotions honestly. It is about sharing the feelings that arise when analyzing interventions, without blaming others.
• Needs: Connect emotions with needs. It is about identifying and communicating the needs that underlie feelings.
• Requests: Make clear and specific requests. Instead of demanding or criticizing, formulate clear and specific requests about the actions you want.

Focus of Strategic Complex Design (SCD)

Just as the reintroduction of wolves in Yellowstone triggered a cascade of changes that revitalized the ecosystem, systems thinking invites us to understand interconnections and design interventions that generate a positive impact on complex systems.

In Strategic Complex Design (SCD), we use this type of thinking to navigate the complexity of challenges:

• Systemic visualization, which becomes our ally, allows us to “see” the system as a whole and understand the relationships between its elements.
• Incremental changes, applied strategically and with an iterative “build-measure-learn” approach, can generate significant transformations.
• Efficient communication is essential to drive change. We must communicate our intentions and visions clearly, empathetically, and constructively, using tools such as Nonviolent Communication to build trust and collaboration.

The wolves in Yellowstone remind us of the interconnection of all the elements of a system. Having tools that allow us to act with awareness, responsibility, and creativity to build a more interconnected and better future.